Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

挠性接管在轴对称载荷下的应力应变计算

针对目前挠性接管强度计算存在的不足,在充分考虑骨架层的弯曲刚度和扭转刚度对挠性接管强度影响的基础上,推导出在承受轴对称负荷(拉压、扭矩及内压)时,挠性接管及其加强筋的应变和外力的关系,为挠性接管的结构设计和强度计算提供了理论公式.     

精神困境·救赎之路·孤独之旅—谈鲁迅与史铁生

史铁生是当代著名作家，他的作品思想深邃，精神探索超前，艺术方面也达到一定高度，鲁迅对他的影响很深刻，二人的创作无论在内容方面还是在艺术方面都有异曲同工之妙，二人共同关注着精神困境和生命本真，共同寻找和思考救赎之路，并且用三种相同的方式表达孤独。     

Nonrobustness of the normal approximation of lead‐time demand in a (Q,R) system

For computing an optimal (Q, R) or kindred inventory policy, the current literature provides mixed signals on whether or when it is safe to approximate a nonnormal lead‐time‐demand (“LTD”) distribution by a normal distribution. The first part of this paper examines this literature critically to justify why the issue warrants further investigations, while the second part presents reliable evidence showing that the system‐cost penalty for using the normal approximation can be quite serious even when the LTD‐distribution's coefficient of variation is quite low—contrary to the prevalent view of the literature. We also identify situations that will most likely lead to large system‐cost penalty. Our results indicate that, given today's technology, it is worthwhile to estimate an LTD‐distribution's shape more accurately and to compute optimal inventory policies using statistical distributions that more accurately reflect the LTD‐distributions' actual shapes. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

一种新的Kronecker扩频码在盲多用户检测中的应用

当直接序列(DS-CDMA)系统中的多址干扰非常强时,自适应的盲多用户检测的性能将会严重下降.为了解决这一问题,一般的做法是增加系统的扩频增益,但是其取得的效果是有限的.本文将一种新的克罗内克(Kronecker)扩频序列应用到盲多用户检测中,该序列通过普通的扩频序列对自身作Kronecker乘积而生成.理论分析和仿真...     

吸收光谱法测量COIL水含量的实验研究

介绍了吸收光谱测量水蒸汽绝对浓度的方法,标定了实验环境下水蒸汽的吸收系数,并在氧碘化学激光器(COIL)上进行了初步的实验研究.测量结果显示,在常规工作条件下由于BHP温度变化所引起的水汽百分含量变化可以忽略,气体流速是引起水汽含量变化的主要原因.     

利用构造性仿真评估导弹精度

通过对导弹落点散布的构造性仿真获得了落点(均值与方差)的验前分布参数,通过与现场试验数据的相容性检验获得了验前信息的可信度,在考虑验前信息可信度的情况下获得了命中点的均值与方差的验后Bayes估计。算例表明该方法对于仿真信息的应用合理可信,考虑可信度下的Bayes估计具有较好的置信度。     

Machine scheduling with pickup and delivery

The coordination of production, supply, and distribution is an important issue in logistics and operations management. This paper develops and analyzes a single‐machine scheduling model that incorporates the scheduling of jobs and the pickup and delivery arrangements of the materials and finished jobs. In this model, there is a capacitated pickup and delivery vehicle that travels between the machine and the storage area, and the objective is to minimize the makespan of the schedule. The problem is strongly NP‐hard in general but is solvable in polynomial time when the job processing sequence is predetermined. An efficient heuristic is developed for the general problem. The effectiveness of the heuristic is studied both analytically and computationally. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Attrition through a partially coordinated area defense

An area defense consists of several groups that act independently, i.e., do not communicate with each other. Each group has a fixed number of defenders and a controller that allocates these defenders optimally against the individual attackers comprising an attack. We analyze the effectiveness of this partially coordinated defense against a simultaneous attack of known size in which all attackers are considered to be equally lethal. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Finding the Kth shortest path in a time‐schedule network

We consider the problem of finding the Kth shortest path for a time‐schedule network, where each node in the network has a list of prespecified departure times, and departure from the node can take place only at one of these departure times. We develop a polynomial time algorithm independent of K for finding the Kth shortest path. The proposed algorithm constructs a map structure at each node in the network, using which we can directly find the Kth shortest path without having to enumerate the first K − 1 paths. Since the same map structure is used for different K values, it is not necessary to reconstruct the table for additional paths. Consequently, the algorithm is suitable for directly finding multiple shortest paths in the same network. Furthermore, the algorithm is modified slightly for enumerating the first K shortest paths and is shown to have the lowest possible time complexity under a condition that holds for most practical networks. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.